Opinion: London Hospitality Cannot Absorb Another VAT Rise

The argument

The Treasury will tell you the numbers work. The operators we spoke to this month will tell you the numbers do not. Somewhere between the spreadsheet and the shift, the maths breaks.

We spoke to twelve small operators — six restaurants, three bars, three cafés — about what a two-point VAT rise would actually cost them. Every one of them said the same thing: staff first, then hours, then location.

This is not abstract. This is the shape of the city's dining rooms in eighteen months.